When will the housing price pendulum swing backwards? When is the right time to sell? If you’ve been watching our hot market and waiting to sell, here’s what you need to know.
National media narrative spurs in uptick in listings
While the Florida market remains one of the strongest in the country, we are seeing an uptick of homes on the market. The latest data released by NEFAR today shows 4,277 homes as active listings in May; 3,800 in April, and 3,500 in March. According to Realtor.com, the supply of homes for sale nationally jumped 9% last week compared to the same week a year ago.
So, what’s going on? More and more sellers are taking the national narrative into account and pulling the trigger on selling their homes.
If we look at supply and demand is it will be no surprise that we may see a slowdown in growth of home values due to this.
In reality, Florida is still one of the strongest real estate markets in the country still with 1.1 months of inventory, compared with a stable market being 6 months. We would literally need 5,000-6,000 more homes on the market to slow it down. In Northeast Florida we are still operating on a third of the inventory we would normally have – however if the heavy real estate media coverage continues to spur sales, it may be the right time to sell if you are looking to get the most value out of your home.
Keep in mind that what the mainstream media says about the national real estate market is not necessarily relevant to Florida. I mean, you wouldn’t pay attention to a national weather forecast, would you? You have to dig down to our regional level to understand what is going on.
What is really going on in Northeast Florida?
According to Bank of England there are 3 factors contributing to our market:
- Relocation to Florida by companies, hence employees coming into our area
- Resident relocation. Buyers are being priced out of other cities (i.e.: average home prices in Bay Area $1.4M, $800,000 New York, and $1M in Los Angeles)
- Investors with cash (32% of transactions, mainly hedge funds)
In their latest analysis BOE also highlighted the following:
- Demand is driving the market
- Listings are higher than in 2020
- 38% of buyers are from the North East
- The average listing price in St Johns County is up 33%
- Rent rolls in Jacksonville are up 70% in 2 years
- Jacksonville has been underpriced since 2008
- New listings are not slowing down
- Average sales price $463,000 (NE Florida)
- Average household income has increased 15%, which outweighs the increase in housing prices
- While we may be in a recession, it is not a housing recession
NEFAR released the data today for May. Here are the regional highlights
- PALM COAST – Increase in listings and homes sold. Slightly more days on market from 4 days. Market still tight.
- ST. AUGUSTINE – Both list and sale prices increasing. Days on market remaining steady as we have seen in recent months at 14.
- JACKSONVILLE BEACH –Dip in homes sold year over year. Days on market longer than we have seen in the past year.
- PONTE VEDRA BEACH – Homes for sale are up while sold homes are well down. Jump in list price as people are showing more interest in selling to capitalize on market values.
RESIDENTIAL DATA – NORTHEAST FLORIDA
| MAY 2022 | ST. AUGUSTINE | PALM COAST | JACKSONVILLE BEACH | PONTE VEDRA BEACH |
| Median List Price | $524,900 (+28%) | $498,000 (+29%) | $832,495 (26%) | $1,407,500 (48%) |
| Median Sale Price | $454,995 (+24%) | $376,000 (12%) | $640,000 (4%) | $1,262,500 (74%) |
| Median DOM | 14 (-22%) | 6 (-45%) | 18 (38%) | 26 (116%) |
| # Active Listings | 569 (5%) | 61 (41%) | 84 (-4.5%) | 128 (13%) |
| # Homes Sold | 338 (-22%) | 40 (21%) | 33 (-45%) | 72 (-37%) |
